Shares of key Indian aluminium producers such as Nalco, Hindalco, and Vedanta saw strong momentum, with analysts expecting prices to stay firm supported by lower inventories and production disruptions in China.

Summary :

During Q4CY25, Alcoa’s earnings were driven by higher aluminium prices, stronger regional premia, and lower alumina input costs, resulting in a sharp QoQ rise in EBITDA despite softer alumina prices. Management expects LME aluminium prices to strengthen into 2026, with an 8 per cent QoQ increase reported in Q4CY25, supported by continued aluminium deficits in the US and Europe and capacity constraints in China due to caps.  

Structural support from the US tariffs and Europe’s CBAM are likely to keep all-in prices elevated. While Alcoa incurs over $1 billion annually in gross tariff costs, higher the US, Midwest premia have enabled effective pass-through, making tariffs net positive at current levels. This pricing environment should also benefit Hindalco’s US subsidiary Novelis, helping offset tariff-related cost pressures and support its can and specialty segments .

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